Ireland’s bonus-point victory over Samoa ensured progression to the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals, and Joe Schmidt’s side still have a chance of avoiding New Zealand.
Yesterday’s win put Ireland out of reach of Scotland, meaning today’s game between Gregor Townsend’s side and hosts Japan is a straight shoot-out between the sides to see who joins Ireland at the quarter-final stage.
Japan hold the advantage, with Scotland needing a win to progress, while also needing to ensure that if Japan pick up a losing bonus point, Scotland match that with a winning bonus point.
A Japan win or draw will see them top the group, with Ireland finishing as runners-up to set up a quarter-final tie with the All Blacks. Two losing bonus points for Japan would also see the hosts top the group at Ireland’s expense. If Japan and Ireland both finish on 16 points, then head-to-head dictates that Japan win the pool.
One losing bonus point for Japan would be enough for second place, provided Scotland do not pick up a bonus point of their own. In this scenario, Ireland would top the group on 16 points, with Japan finishing second on 15 points. If both sides pick up a bonus point in a Scotland win, then Japan will be eliminated at the pool stages.